The Economic Future of Atlantic Canada: Bold Ambition Required

We chat with Don & David about their new book in our lastest episode of Afternoon Pint

As Atlantic Canada faces significant economic challenges, a clear path forward requires embracing our natural resources and fostering innovation. Economists Don Mills and David Campbell recently outlined their vision for regional prosperity, identifying key opportunities and obstacles that stand in our way.

Perhaps the most compelling opportunity lies in Atlantic Canada's wind resources, which Peter Nicholson has identified as potentially equivalent in economic impact to Alberta's oil and gas or Quebec's hydroelectricity. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has begun promoting "Wind West," an ambitious initiative that could generate 40-60 gigawatts of power – representing up to 25% of all Canadian energy. This isn't just about environmental sustainability; it presents a transformative economic opportunity. The infrastructure, once built, creates price stability not subject to volatile fossil fuel markets and could potentially generate enough revenue to significantly reduce power costs for Nova Scotians while selling excess capacity to neighbouring regions.

However, this potential prosperity faces significant obstacles. Mills noted Atlantic Canada's reputation as "the worst mining jurisdiction in North America," with development timelines averaging 17 years from discovery to production. This regulatory burden discourages investment even in critical resources like uranium, which global markets desperately need as countries committed to tripling nuclear energy production. The recent failed bid for uranium mining rights in Nova Scotia wasn't due to lack of interest but rather the region's challenging regulatory environment.

A concerning economic imbalance exists in Atlantic Canada's workforce structure. Currently, one in four Atlantic Canadians works in the public sector, compared to one in five nationally. As Mills explained, "We're playing a man short and trying to keep up with the national average when it comes to economic growth. It's literally impossible." This overreliance on public sector employment creates an unsustainable economic model without sufficient wealth generation from the private sector.

Immigration has emerged as a critical catalyst for regional economic development. An impressive 30% of Atlantic Canada's startup community consists of newcomers, who often demonstrate greater entrepreneurial risk tolerance and a global market perspective. Unlike many native-born entrepreneurs who focus locally, immigrant entrepreneurs frequently target national and international markets. Prince Edward Island provides compelling evidence that immigrants create rather than take jobs, with half of their BioAlliance companies having at least one foreign-born founder.

Innovation clusters have demonstrated remarkable success in the region. PEI's BioAlliance generates approximately $600 million in annual revenue, becoming the third or fourth largest contributor to provincial GDP in just twenty years. Similar opportunities exist in ocean technology, the blue economy, and artificial intelligence applications in traditional industries. The integration of AI with established sectors represents a strategic opportunity to leverage Atlantic Canada's existing strengths.

The post-secondary education sector also represents a significant economic driver. International students contribute approximately $35,000 annually to local economies, with over 60% expressing a desire to remain in the region after graduation. These students provide not only immediate economic benefits but also represent potential talent retention and investment channels if properly engaged.

Leadership appears critical to Atlantic Canada's economic transformation. Looking back over forty years of political leadership, Mills observed a generally poor track record of transformational change, with few exceptions like Frank McKenna, Stephen McNeil, and Danny Williams. Premier Tim Houston's recent bold initiatives around natural resources and energy appear promising, emphasizing partnerships rather than the traditional "hat in hand" approach to federal relations.

As Atlantic Canada navigates its economic future, embracing natural resources, immigration, innovation, and strong leadership will be essential. The region stands at a pivotal moment where bold ambition could transform it from a perennial "have-not" region to a net contributor to the Canadian federation.

It was a pleasure chatting with Don and David on this weeks episode of Afternoon Pint. We encourage you to take a listen AND to get a copy of their new book Toward Prosperity: The Transformation of Atlantic Canada's Economy, wherever you get your books